Show HN: Predicto – Probability Distribution-Based Prediction Tracking

1 point

a year ago

I built Predicto, an app that helps improve forecasting accuracy by focusing on probability distributions rather than binary outcomes. The core insight is that real-world predictions are rarely binary - like a dice roll has six equally probable outcomes, most predictions have multiple possible outcomes with varying probabilities.

Technical features: - Probability distribution modeling for predictions - Built-in black swan event accounting - Statistical tracking of prediction accuracy over time - Visualization tools for analyzing prediction performance - Android native app (iOS version in development)

The goal is to help people develop more nuanced mental models for prediction-making and improve their calibration over time through systematic tracking.

Try it out: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.yourcompan...

Tech stack details and feedback welcome!