- It gives you truthseeking incentives
- You communicate your uncertainty as a probability, which is way clearer (70% is better than “probably”)
- You can aggregate forecasts to get wisdom of the crowd effects
- You can build a track record, calibrate your uncertainty, and pay more attention to people who are consistently accurate
I’m a fan of prediction markets [0] and forecasting platforms [1]. But predictions on existing platforms are public - and the questions that are most important to you are normally about your work, which are often best to keep private by default, so you can give your true credence.
So this is a simple tool for very quickly recording your predictions, getting a reminder to resolve them as YES, NO or AMBIGUOUS, and visualising your track record (calibration chart, Brier score [2], relative Brier, frequency of predictions).
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