Nate Silver vs. The Betting Markets

22 points

18 years ago

For the record, on the night before the election:

(Obama is first number, McCain second)

fivethirtyeight.com:

  OH: 86% - 14%
  FL: 67% - 33%
  NC: 59% - 41%
  MO: 47% - 53%
  IN: 36% - 64%
  ND: 34% - 66%
  MT: 23% - 77%

intrade.com:

  OH: 75% - 24%
  FL: 77% - 25%
  NC: 65% - 43%
  MO: 52% - 50%
  IN: 39% - 67%
  ND: 27% - 76%
  MT: 33% - 78%

betfair.com:

  OH: 80% - 18%
  FL: 78% - 24%
  NC: 61% - 40%
  MO: 53% - 51%
  IN: 41% - 65%
  ND: 31% - 73%
  MT: 30% - 72%

Final Scores:

Nate Silver (McCain gets MO): Obama 353, McCain 185

Betting Markets (Obama gets MO): Obama 364, McCain 174

Karl Rove (McCain gets MO and NC): Obama 338, McCain 200

pollster.com (McCain MO, NC, FL): Obama 311, McCain 227

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