Swype's method is almost completely identical to Shapewriter (formerly IBM Shark). It'll be interesting to see if they can make this mainstream.
more at:
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/u/zhai/topics/virtualkeyboard.htm
http://www.37signals.com/svn/posts/1240-swype-keyboard-for-touchscreens
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Swype demos ShapeWriter clone at TechCrunch50 | Heykuki News