Ask HN: Avoid moving to LA/SF due to earthquake risk?

4 points

9 years ago

I'm considering moving back to LA after a one year hiatus. However, after the recent earthquakes in Mexico, I started researching the probability of a major earthquake striking the LA area and the predictions are not reassuring.

For Southern CA, here are the stats for the next 30 years: Magnitude 6.7 - 97% Magnitude 7.0 - 82% Magnitude 7.5 - 37% Magnitude 8.0 - 03%

For the SF region, here are the stats for the next 30 years: Magnitude 6.7 - 93% Magnitude 7.0 - 68% Magnitude 7.5 - 15% Magnitude 8.0 - 02%

For reference, the 1994 Northridge earthquake was magnitude 6.7. Also, the Fort Tejon earthquake in 1857 in SoCal was magnitude 7.9.

I work in the film industry, so LA is the ideal place for me to live, but I could probably find work in NYC. I'm leaning towards not returning to LA due to the earthquake risk, but I'm wondering if I'm being irrational. Any thoughts on how to weigh odds that involve life/death?

Source: https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3027/fs2008-3027.pdf

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