Admittedly 538 is a pretty jerky approximation of the state of the arts in analytics, but it seems fair to me to say that there were humans analyzing the race through there own logic were on to Trumps appeal before people looking at the race through analytic lenses were

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interesting footnote from the above linked article:

2. An earlier, longer draft of this post invoked the parable of Bertrand Russell’s inductivist turkey.

https://mashimo.wordpress.com/2013/03/12/bertrand-russells-inductivist-turkey/

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I feel like there is an interesting question being ignored here

whether this is an event that calls into question "Big Data" or "analytics" as a project

whether those things run you into one inductivist turkey after another

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or more accurately, what humans' role will be in the "Big Data" age

obviously that stuff is helpful

but humans might be uniquely positioned to spot the inductivist turkeys before the computers do

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if the singularity worries you

this seems like a wildly reassuring event for humanity